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Top Kentucky Derby Contenders: Part One

Writer's picture: Chelsea Lowman Chelsea Lowman

Good Magic winning the Blue Grass Stakes, Coady Photography

All of the Kentucky Derby prep races have been completed. The coveted points have been claimed and the top contenders have stepped forward to prove themselves worthy. There is just one stop left for this elite group of three-year-old horses, and that is the Kentucky Derby. The first Saturday in May is looming closer and closer and in the coming weeks, one colt will rise above all others to crown himself as the Kentucky Derby winner. Only one horse will take home the infamous roses and uncover the mystery as to who the best horse really is. Time will tell who that champion will be, but for now we are left dreaming and guessing. Things may change between now and May 5, but as of now, here is a list of some of the top horses that have truly proven themselves as legitimate Kentucky Derby contenders.


1. Good Magic

I don't normally get too high on the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, but there is just something different about Good Magic. Ever since he was a two-year-old I couldn't shake the feeling that he was going to have a big year at the age of three, and so far he is on the right path. His third place finish in the Fountain of Youth (Gr.2) at the start of the season was less than inspirational, but his recent rebound in the Blue Grass Stakes (Gr.2) was more than enough reassurance that the champ is back.


Good Magic broke swiftly and strongly from his outside post in the Blue Grass Stakes and brazenly charged his away across the track to establish a good position in fifth. While the pacesetters did all the dirty work up front, Good Magic waited for the perfect moment to strike. Around the final bend, Good Magic unleashed a powerful rally that propelled him to even terms with the speedy, Flameaway. The two colts looked each other dead in the eye and the battle was on. Flameaway is not a horse that gives up his lead without a fight, so this win was going to have to be earned. The pair dashed wildly down the stretch in a spellbinding battle, fighting tooth and nail for every stride. As the wire neared, Good Magic dug in gamely and pressed on. Conjuring up all of his speed, he shot forward to put away his stubborn foe. Good Magic cruised home by 1 1/2 lengths, reminding all who witnessed that his win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall was no fluke.


Good Magic is a son of Curlin, which means that the demanding 1 1/4 mile of the Kentucky Derby should not be an issue. In fact, this colt may even thrive with added distance. He has the pedigree, running style, and connections of a Kentucky Derby winner, and on the first Saturday in May, we might just see him put it all together once again on the biggest stage. Chad Brown knows how to get a horse ready for a major race, so you can rest easy knowing that he will have this horse loaded and ready to make his charmed bid for the roses.


2. Mendelssohn

I can honestly say that Mendelssohn is the first UAE Derby winner that I am taking seriously for the Kentucky Derby. Between his impressive resume, blatant talent, ruthless speed, and royal pedigree, it is fair to say this colt is worth his weight in gold. The regal bay is by the late sire, Scat Daddy and is out of the incomparable mare, Leslie's Lady, making him a half brother to Beholder and Into Mischief. The Aidan O'Brien trainee started out his career as a turf horse, but has since proven that he is capable of running and winning on any surface he wants.


Mendelssohn won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at the age of two, displaying his tenacity and class at a top level. His undeniable potential gave his connections the confidence to dream of Mendelssohn becoming something more than just a turf star, and mapped out a plan to make it to the Kentucky Derby. Once Mendelssohn turned three, he set off to Dundalk Racecourse to begin his campaign. He entered the Patton Stakes where he scored easily over the synthetic strip. Mendelssohn proved that he could be successful on the synthetic track, but if he wanted to find glory on the first Saturday in May, he would have to prove that his power was just as effective on the dirt. His chance came on March 31, when he traveled all the way to Dubai to compete in the UAE Derby.


Mendelssohn was expected to do well in the UAE Derby, but the stunning performance that he delivered went above and beyond what anyone could have imagined. In a superior display of speed and strength, Mendelssohn charged to the front of the UAE Derby and never looked back. With unyielding stamina and an unwavering desire to win, the regal beast thundered through rapid fractions, increasing his lead dramatically as he went. The colt never faltered as he dashed through furlong after furlong, and before he knew it he was turning for home all alone. In a breathtaking exhibition, Mendelssohn accelerated down the stretch, opening up on his competition at an almost alarming rate. In an utterly chilling performance, Mendelssohn soared over the finish line a staggering 18 1/2 lengths ahead of his nearest challenger. His sublime exploit over his foes shattered the track record, as he completed the 1 3/16 mile event in a blazing final time of 1:55.18. It is not everyday that you see such a young horse rip apart his competition with such flagrant authority. After a performance like that, you can't help but take this horse seriously. Mendelssohn might have to experience the sting of kickback for the first time in the crowded field of the Kentucky Derby, but he has passed every other challenge that has come his way so far, so who's to say he can't do it again. This intrepid colt has class, versatility and blazing early speed on his side, making him very dangerous for the first Saturday in May.


3. Flameaway

Flameaway is a horse that has proven his heart and will to win on numerous occasions. This horse is driven by determination, and possesses a competitive drive so strong that he will run on any surface, at any distance, and against any foe. This fearless son of Scat Daddy has won five of his nine starts, at five different tracks, on surfaces ranging from synthetic, to turf, to dirt, to slop. No matter how arduous the challenge is that awaits this colt, he always runs his race.


Flameaway has been gifted with courage, versatility, and speed. This consistent runner established himself as a Kentucky Derby contender back in February, when he wired the field in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (Gr.3) at Tampa Bay Downs. His winning effort that day was followed up with two valiant second place finishes. He ran second to Quip in the Tampa Bay Derby (Gr.2) after breaking poorly from the gate and losing ground in the stretch. He then ran a very game second in the Blue Grass Stakes to champion, Good Magic, after being hounded by Arawak in a speed duel almost the entire way around. The battle took its toll on Arawak, who faded all the way to last. But as for Flameaway, his courage and determination was enough to see him through. He may not have won, but he was right there with the winner in the end.


Flameaway was flattered beyond his gallant finish in the Blue Grass, when Vino Rosso won the Wood Memorial (Gr.2) that same day. Vino Rosso is a colt that Flameaway soundly defeated in their two previous meetings earlier in the spring, so to see Vino Rosso come back and win so decisively in a major Derby prep validated the form of the horses that Flameaway has been running with. Flameaway is a serious racehorse who does not like to loose. No matter what challenge rears its head, this dauntless colt will not back away. I expect him to be right there in the thick of it when the field turns for home in the Kentucky Derby, fighting his way to the top and giving his all. This horse is way too consistent and determined to ignore, and I know that when the starting gates open in the Kentucky Derby, he will once again run his race.


4. Magnum Moon

With an undefeated record and a Grade I victory to his name, there's not much to knock about Magnum Moon. After breaking his maiden and scoring in an allowance race, Magnum Moon took down a quality group of runners in the Grade II, Rebel Stakes a Oaklawn Park. A month later, he added the Grade I, Arkansas Derby to his flawless record and stamped himself as a serious Kentucky Derby contender.


The 1 1/4 mile distance of the Kentucky Derby should suit Magnum Moon perfectly. The imposing bay is by Malibu Moon, the sire of 2013 Kentucky Derby winner, Orb, and is out of the Unbridled's Song mare, Dazzling Song. With endurance from both sides of his family coursing strongly through his veins, Magnum Moon will not be left wanting when he reaches the testing final quarter of the Kentucky Derby. This athletic colt has displayed adaptability by winning from on and off the pace, which means that it will be easy for him to find a comfortable position in the crowded field of the Kentucky Derby. If he finds himself on the lead, we know he can handle it, and if he finds himself stuck behind horses, he can handle that, too.


Perhaps the biggest thing going against Magnum Moon in his pursuit of the roses is the fact that no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a two-year-old since Apollo in 1882. Many horses have tried to end the curse over the past 136 years, but all have met unavailing defeat. However, history was meant to be changed, and maybe this is the year to see the curse of Apollo come to an end.


5. Justify

Just like Magnum Moon, Justify is a horse who is also looking to put an end to Apollo's curse. This striking, chestnut son of Scat Daddy made his debut in February of this year, and is currently riding high with an undefeated record. After impressive wins in a maiden race and an allowance optional claiming event, Justify took aim at the Grade I, Santa Anita Derby. Despite running with a sprung shoe, the colt managed to lead his rivals the entire way around as he marched to victory. He defeated the highly regarded colt, Bolt d'Oro in the Santa Anita Derby, and secured enough points to make it to Louisville for the first Saturday in May.


There has been an astronomical amount of hype surrounding Justify from the very beginning, and thanks to his score in the Santa Anita Derby, it is very likely that he will be the favorite for the Kentucky Derby. This colt has a seemingly endless stride and a natural desire to run, which makes him a very exciting prospect moving forward. With that being said, his easy fractions in the Santa Anita Derby did leave some questions about his ability to handle a fight. This lightly raced colt had things go his own way, so there is still a mystery surrounding him since the rage of the twenty horse strong Kentucky Derby will be unlike anything this inexperienced youngster has ever faced. It would not be easy for any horse to try to win the Kentucky Derby after only competing in one prior stakes race, and Justify's lack of experience may play against him when the starting gates open in Kentucky. However, this plucky youngster has managed to accomplish a lot in a very short amount of time, proving that if any horse is up for this arduous task, it's him. Maybe Justify will continue to live up to the hype that has followed him all spring. If he really is as special as people are saying, then it won't be long until we will see him being showered in roses.


Justify leading the way in the Santa Anita Derby, photo by Gary Tasich

Stay tuned for part 2 of the top Kentucky Derby contenders!

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