The week of the Kentucky Derby is finally upon us. Post positions for the grand event have been drawn, giving us a clearer picture of what we can expect when the starting gates burst open on Saturday. As we approach the big day, bettors and fans alike are scrambling to solve the mystery of how this prestigious race will unfold. With so many decorated and accomplished runners coming into this year's Kentucky Derby, there are bound to be some very talented horses who will end up being overlooked. In a race that has twenty elite horses heading to post, colts that would normally be favored will end up breaking from the gate with giant odds. The field size, hype, and depth of the competition means that some highly accomplished horses will be heading to post as longshots, simply because they got lost in the shuffle of some of the the bigger names in the game.
With so many capable contenders heading to post for the 144th Kentucky Derby, chances are that the winner of the race will be a horse with big odds. Many horses that normally wouldn't even be considered a longshot will end up with the odds of an underdog, due to the sheer size of the field. When you take into account the fact that the last five winners of the Kentucky Derby have all been favorites, it makes you think that the trend is bound to end. After all, I can't think of a better time for an upset than in the Kentucky Derby.
When capable longshots come to mind, I can't think of a better contender than the ever valorous, Flameaway. Nicknamed, "Hercules", the gritty son of, Scat Daddy, has gone from zero to hero in a short amount of time. Awkward and chubby looking as a baby, Flameaway didn't exactly strike anyone as Kentucky Derby material. However, his humble beginnings didn't last long, and the once lumbering youngster grew into his looks and blossomed into something beautiful, both on and off the track.
While it took a while for Flameaway to inspire those around him with his looks, one thing that the colt did possess from day one was the mind of a champion. Calm, cool, and collected from the start, Flameaway proved to be a highly intelligent animal, equipped with a remarkable disposition. His deep connection with the humans around him and his willingness to learn and compete have always been a distinctive quality in the colt, and it has brought him to where he is today.
Drawing post #4 , in the Derby, Flameaway has been handed massive morning line odds of 30-1. He may have the odds of a longshot, but a quick look at Flameaway's overall career would suggest otherwise. With five trips to the winner's circle out of nine career starts, including an impressive score in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, Flameaway hardly fits the category of an underdog. This resolute, young steed has proven his speed and strength on multiple occasions, sweeping to victory on five different racetracks, on surfaces ranging from synthetic, to turf, to dirt, to mud. There isn't a lot that can trip this versatile youngster up, and that makes him extremely dangerous as he comes into the biggest race of his life. This colt is determined, fearless, and consistent, and he will fight anyone who dares to challenge. Throwing in the towel has never been an option for this horse, and I expect his daring and competitive nature to carry him far on Saturday, just as it always has before.
Flameaway is doing better in his training than he ever has before. The nimble colt has been absolutely thriving since his arrival to Churchill Downs, turning in strong, flashy workouts that have left even his connections amazed. In his final prep race before the Kentucky Derby, Flameaway ran an extremely game second in the Blue Grass Stakes (Gr.2), behind Breeders' Cup Juvenile champion, Good Magic. After being hounded by Arawak throughout the entire race and setting scorching fractions, there was a reasonable amount of concern that the battle could have taken something out of the gallant colt. However, Flameaway has proved as unflappable as ever, getting right back to work and showing no signs of slowing down. If his workouts are of any indication, Flameaway has actually come out of the Blue Grass Stakes stronger than ever, and that's a scary thought. Leave this colt out of your wagers at your own risk, because he is going to run the race of his life on Saturday.
Another sneaky longshot in search of roses is the regally bred, Enticed. With a glistening, dark coat stretched across a muscled frame, Enticed is not lacking when it comes to the imposing looks of a winner. However, with morning line odds of 30-1 , the public hardly sees him as a threat for the "Run for the Roses". But if you are looking for an upset, you might just want to consider this massive son of, Medaglia d'Oro.
Built with the solid strength of a tank, Enticed is a horse that can throw his weight around and push his way into a good position when the starting gates open in the Kentucky Derby. And while his brute strength and size may pose intimidating to his rivals, it is not the only thing working to his advantage. With six career starts under his belt, Enticed has visited the winner's circle three times, and has hit the board twice. The only time this big, hulking beast has finished out of the top three was when he ran fourth in the Holy Bull Stakes (Gr.2), after a troubled trip.
Enticed is one of the few Kentucky Derby contenders that already has racing experience over the battlegrounds of the Kentucky Derby. At the age of two, he displayed unwavering determination and grit when he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (Gr.2), by a nose at Churchill Downs. His next victory came at the age of three, when he cruised to glory in the Gotham Stakes (Gr.3), over a solid group of rivals. In his most recent start, Enticed ran second to Vino Rosso in the Wood Memorial (Gr.2). Controversy followed the race, as Enticed was shoved around multiple times in the stretch by Vino Rosso. However, their placings were left unchanged, setting the stage for a rematch in the Kentucky Derby.
Admittedly, there is some question as to whether Enticed can handle the hustle and bustle of a twenty horse field. He does not appear to be comfortable when he finds himself stuck inside of horses, and looked less than pleased when the punches were thrown in the Wood Memorial. With that being said, Enticed does have some points in his favor as he embarks in the Kentucky Derby. The dark colt is bred up and down to run the 1-1/4 distance of this classic race, so it is unlikely that he will find his stamina wavering when he makes the turn for home. He also has a unique pattern going for him, that has remained consistent throughout his entire career, so far. From the beginning, Enticed has been on a win-lose pattern. He wins a race, then loses, then wins, then loses. Every single time he has lost a race he has come back to win his next start. Since he is fresh off of a loss in the Wood Memorial, that means that he is due to win his next race. And what better race for that trend to continue than the Kentucky Derby? Enticed has been training exceptionally well over the past couple of weeks, and is not in this race without a chance.
My Boy Jack comes to mind when searching for a price horse to use in your wagers. He is not nearly as glorified as some of the other contenders, and yet he comes into the race as a solid, reliable, competitor. This strapping son of Creative Cause has the guts and the audacity to take on anyone you put in front of him, and that makes him a serious contender in any race.
My Boy Jack may only have 3 victories out of 10 career starts, but that does not mean that he should be overlooked. This adaptable youngster has the tenacity and consistency to have a say in the outcome of this race, as he has already proven his ability to hold his own against some highly talented runners. The leggy, bay has displayed his worth on multiple surfaces, which include the turf, dirt, and mud. Track conditions won't matter for this horse. He will run his race regardless of what you put him on. Last seen grinding out a win in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, My Boy Jack is a horse that loves to fight and loves to win. With juicy morning line odds of 30-1 , My Boy Jack is a horse that would be wise to consider using underneath.
Dealt with odds of 8-1 , the ever valiant, Bolt d'Oro comes into the 144th Kentucky Derby as somewhat of a longshot. With four wins in six starts, there isn't much not to like about this tough horse. With wins in a maiden special weight, the Del Mar Futurity (Gr.1), and the FrontRunner Stakes (Gr.1), at the age of two, Bolt d'Oro was undefeated until he came into the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Gr.1), where he ran third behind Good Magic and Solomini. He was then sidelined early in his three-yer-old season due to a pulled muscle, but his determination and resiliency was enough to see him through. The gritty colt got down to business and bounced back in time to make the cut for the illustrious Kentucky Derby.
After a controversial disqualification placed Bolt d'Oro as the winner in the San Felipe Stakes (Gr.2), the bay son of Medaglia d'Oro entered the prestigious Santa Anita Derby (Gr.1). There he faced the likes of the highly regarded, Justify, who has now been dubbed as the favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Bolt d'Oro suffered a cut on his foot during the running of the race, and yet he pressed on, undeterred. He put up an admirable effort, but had to settle for second behind Justify, who bested him by three lengths. Bolt d'Oro walked away leaving a trail of blood in his tracks, which served as a reminder of his determination and courage. The dauntless colt will do whatever it takes to deliver his best, and will let no obstacle stand in his way. Win or lose, this steadfast warrior will be there in the end, giving it his all.
Last we have Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner and Two-Year-Old Champion, Good Magic. This flashy son of Curlin is not a longshot at all in my book, but his morning line odds of 12-1 allow him to squeeze into the underdog category. This is a rare opportunity to have a horse of Good Magic's quality enter a race with such tantalizing odds, so you might want to bet him while this lasts, because I can guarantee that his odds won't be nearly as attractive in the Preakness, should he pull off a win in this esteemed event.
With two wins and two seconds in five career starts, Good Magic is a horse that knows how to win when it counts the most. After stunning the world by breaking his maiden in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he returned to action at the age of three with a flatfooted performance in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (Gr.2). His third place finish left many people skeptical, but the handsome chestnut was quick to remind them that he truly is worthy to compete in America's greatest race. Good Magic rebounded with a breathtaking win in the Blue Grass Stakes (Gr.2), where he handed defeat to the ultra-talented, Flameaway, a colt that is notoriously difficult to pass once in the lead. Since his stunning victory, Good Magic has been thriving in the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby.
Enthusiastic and powerful in his morning workouts, Good Magic is showing all the right signs that he is ready to delivery a master performance on Saturday. The dashing colt couldn't be doing any better right now, indicating that the Kentucky Derby might just be the crowning moment for this horse. In fact, Good Magic has been training so beautifully that trainer, Chad Brown, remarked, "We're confident that if he continues training as he is now, he'll run the best race of his life".
All systems are go for Good Magic as we zero in on the Kentucky Derby. This colt has been exuding confidence ever since his win in the Blue Grass Stakes, and poses as a major threat to his competition on Saturday. He is likely to improve off of his score in the Blue Grass, and appears to be in the best form of his life right now. I will be shocked if Good Magic doesn't have a say in the outcome of this race.
Thank you to Eric Kalet for providing the lovely pictures! You can find more of his work here http://erickalet.zenfolio.com/
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