On May 5, a big red horse with a streak of ivory splashed across his face captivated the nation when he thundered over the wire in front in the Kentucky Derby, and claimed the roses as his own. Two weeks later, that same horse kept his winning streak alive, and added the Preakness Stakes to his name in determined fashion. Now, as we approach the second Saturday in June, the world will be watching to see if he can add just one more race to his name, and become only the 13th horse to sweep the legendary Triple Crown.
From the very beginning, Justify has had an aura about him that couldn't be denied. From his endless energy, to his flawless stride, the colt exuded a level of confidence that few possess. His competitive mindset and natural talent carried him through victory after victory, and saw him through a curse that had plagued the Kentucky Derby for over 100 years. When Justify won the roses, he became only the second horse in history to win the Derby without racing at the age of two. And when he added the Preakness to his resume, he became the only horse in history to take down both races without a two-year-old foundation. From the very start, Justify has been defying the odds, and on Saturday, he will have just one more hurdle to cross.
There is no doubt that Justify is the most talented horse in the Belmont Stakes. He has passed every test and has proven his dominance over and over again. However, that doesn't mean that he is a lock for taking the Triple Crown. In this unpredictable sport, anything can happen, especially when it comes to the Triple Crown. After all, this is the most arduous task in all of sports. There is a reason why only 12 horses have won the Crown. It is a rare and elusive prize that isn't meant to be captured on a regular basis.
Justify appears to have a very good chance of passing the "Test of the Champions" this weekend, but with his many strengths also comes some weaknesses. Here is a look at the pros and cons of Justify's chances in the Belmont Stakes, starting with his weaknesses.
Historically, the Belmont Stakes has never been kind to favorites. The morning line odds of 4-5 that Justify has been given will not be favored when it comes to the trend of longshots thriving in this race. In fact, the only favorite to win the Belmont Stakes in the past 12 years was American Pharoah in 2015.
Yet another challenge that Justify will have to overcome on Saturday is the dreaded rail post. The strapping chestnut drew post #1 in the Belmont Stakes, which could spell trouble. Being stuck on the inside runs the risk of being trapped and boxed in, which may make it difficult for the colt to make his move, or find a comfortable position. And now that Noble Indy has been added to the race, the pace scenario of the race just got a little trickier. Noble Indy is a quick horse, and there is no doubt that the fleet-footed bay will be right up front with Justify on the lead. If Noble Indy tries to create a fast pace, Justify might get stuck blazing trough taxing fractions, which could burn him out by the time he hits the stretch.
Another potential weakness that Justify will have to overcome is the fact that since February, he has raced 5 times with no real breaks in between. The Kentucky Derby and Preakness understandably takes a lot out of any horse, but the fact that Justify hasn't had a real breather since his debut only makes things harder. And when you take into the account the fact that the Preakness Stakes was particularly taxing due to the murky conditions and dramatic duel with Good Magic, it makes you think that the horses coming into the Belmont Stakes fresh and rested might have the upper hand.
The Belmont Stakes is known as the great equalizer. The grueling 1 1/2 distance of the race will test the heart, courage, and will power of any horse. It is a distance foreign to these young horses, and many of them will likely never run this distance again. It is a race designed to see who can go the farthest without giving up. The uniqueness of this event has made even the most talented of runners fall to even terms with those who once could never get close to them. The Belmont Stakes isn't always won by the best horse in the field, but rather the rare individual who has the guts to dig in and keep on going.
The Belmont Stakes is a daunting challenge for any horse, but when there is a Triple Crown in question, things have been known to become even more intense. Strange and inexplicable things have gone on at Belmont Park when the Triple Crown is on the line, and it is quite possible that the mysterious aura of the past will rear its head on Saturday.
Horses that once appeared unbeatable have fallen victim to the final test at Belmont Park. Spectacular Bid, who was known as the "greatest horse to ever look through a bridle" failed to win the Triple Crown. Smarty Jones, a horse that had never been beaten, was passed in the final strides of the Belmont Stakes. Real Quiet, who had a clear lead in the stretch, was denied the Triple Crown in the final jump of the race, his bid dramatically stolen by the mere bob of a nose. Big Brown, a horse that had never let his rivals get close to him, pulled up in the stretch of the Belmont Stakes, failing to complete the race. It was the one and only time the horse did not win a race. It is almost as if there is some mysterious, unseen force controlling the Triple Crown, waiting to see who is truly worthy of the prize.
Just like in any race, Justify will have many obstacles to overcome. However, with every down side to a story comes a ray of hope, and luckily for Justify and his fans, there is still a lot to like about him moving into the Belmont Stakes. To end this segment on a positive note, here is a look at the many strengths that the intrepid runner possesses.
Justify is hands down the most talented and accomplished horse in 4the Belmont Stakes. In all five of his races, he has walked away unbeaten. Every single test that Justify has faced has been conquered, and every single foe that has challenged has been left wanting. To date, there has not been one thing that has tripped the unflappable beast up. From sloppy, wet tracks and blinding fog, to daring battles with last years Two-Year-Old Champion, Justify's glory has not been denied.
Justify has a team of connections supporting him that know how to win. Bob Baffert has campaigned countless champions, and knows how to win the Triple Crown. In 2015, the trainer flawlessly guided American Phaorah through the Triple Crown and helped bring a 37-year curse to an end.
On Justify's back will be another legend in his own right. Hall of Fame rider, Mike Smith will once again be in the irons, seeking to make history of his own. With over 5,000 career wins under his belt, and with two previous scores in the Belmont Stakes, Smith knows his way to the winner's circle. Justify couldn't be in better hands as he makes his bid for glory.
Justify can breathe a little easier this time around, as arch-rival, Good Magic, will not be competing in the final leg of the Triple Crown. In the Kentucky Derby, Good Magic ran his heart out to finish a gallant second to Justify. Then in the Preakness, the gritty colt engaged Justify in an epic battle which raged for the majority of the race. Good Magic burned out in the stretch, but pure determination and courage saw Justify prevail. It was a narrow victory for a horse who was used to winning by open lengths, but a win is a win, and Justify pulled through despite the fatigue from the fight. On Saturday, he won't have to worry about Good Magic trying to rough him up anymore.
Another thing that Justify has going for him is his running style. Horses with early speed tend to do very well in the Belmont Stakes. With the wide, gaping turns and long track, Justify can use his early speed to his advantage and establish the perfect position to execute a top performance.
If the grind of the Triple Crown has been taking its toll on Justify, he hasn't shown it. The red beast has been training exceptionally well for the Belmont Stakes, and looks as fit and ready as ever for the final challenge. He has been galloping over the track in the mornings with unwavering enthusiasm, and still continues to exude the same confidence that he has shown from day one. The young horse appears to be in top condition, and has even gained some weight along the way. If his looks and workouts are of any indication, Justify will run the race of his life on Saturday. Whether or not it will be enough to get the job done is yet to be determined, but so far, things are looking promising for the spirited colt.
Justify has overcome every challenge thrown at him so far. On Saturday, he just might do it again. And on the other hand, maybe he won't. The Triple Crown is a mysterious, challenging prize to achieve. Many greats of the past have failed to capture the Crown, and if Justify falls into that category on Saturday, he will lose nothing in defeat. In fact, it will prove that he is normal, and that he will likely rise again. However, if he does succeed, then he will prove that he is indeed a rare freak of nature that somehow found the strength to do what only 12 others have done before.
Thank you to Eric Kalet for the awesome photos! You can find his work here: http://erickalet.zenfolio.com/
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