On November 2 and 3, the best thoroughbred racehorses from around the world will come together at the historic track of Churchill Downs, battling for glory in their respected divisions. Fourteen world-class races will take place over the weekend, with each and every participant vying for victory on racing's biggest stage. Each competitor in the Breeders' Cup races has earned their place in the starting gate, as only the elite are allowed to clash in this prestigious event. With so many races to be run and with so many talented horses loading into the starting gate, there are bound to be quite a few horses that will get overlooked and leave the starting gate with massive odds.
The post positions for all fourteen races have been drawn and the fields are set. If the morning line odds are of any indication, there are going to be some highly talented horses going off with big odds on Friday and Saturday. The Breeders' Cup is nearly upon us, and as it draws ever closer it appears that we have several potential upsets looming in the horizon.
The first potential upset for Breeders' Cup Friday may come at the hooves of Sippican Harbor in the $2 million Tito's Handmade Vodka Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Gr.1). This dark bay daughter of Orb is entering the 1 1/16 mile challenge with morning line odds of 12-1, despite the fact that she is currently riding high on a two-race winning streak.
After a troubled fifth-place finish in her debut, Sippican Harbor put it all together in her second start, destroying her competition with a crushing 17 length romp in a seven-furlong dash at Saratoga. The vivacious filly returned one month later to prove that her victory was no fluke, skipping away to win the grade 1 Spinaway Stakes over a solid group of runners.
A proven grade 1 winner with a pedigree that longs for distance, Sippican Harbor is a serious threat to her competition on Friday. The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies is loaded with speed, which should provide the perfect set-up for this powerful closer. While the other fillies burn each other out on the front end, Sippican Harbor will be lurking in the back and saving her energy for the end when she will finally unleash her solid closing kick. While some of the favorites in this race appear tough to beat, such as Restless Rider and Bellafina, I would advise against leaving Sippican Harbor out of your trifecta. Whether or not this filly makes her way to the front in time, she will have a say in the order of finish.
Another sneaky longshot lurking in the shadows of Breeders' Cup Friday is, Line of Duty. This two-year-old son of Galileo is entered in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Gr.1) on Friday with juicy morning line odds of 10-1. Such high odds would suggest that Line of Duty is in for a real challenge, but when you stop and take a look at his record you will see that this longshot is certainly no underdog.
Trained by Charlie Appleby, Line of Duty is coming into the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf fresh off of two consecutive victories. After breaking his maiden in his third try, Line of Duty scored impressively in the Prix de Conde (Gr.3) at Chantilly Racecourse. This copper-colored colt displayed a superlative combination of determination and heart when winning the Prix de Conde, overcoming heavy traffic with his sublime turn of foot and bold versatility. When it appeared as if there was no room to run, this unflappable youngster found a way to make it to the front and declare victory over his peers. Never worse than second in four career starts, this swift and professional colt appears to be in top form as he gallops into his latest test.
Right after the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf on Friday comes the $2 million Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Gr.1). There is not one but two potential upsets lurking in this race, and one of them is no stranger to lightning up the tote board at massive odds.
On October 6, a gritty Maryland-bred by the name of Knicks Go stunned the racing world by roaring to victory in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland Racecourse. Ignored and dismissed by much of the betting public, Knicks Go launched from the starting gate with staggering odds of 70-1. But it was he who had the last laugh, as he romped past the wire by 5 1/2 lengths. Knicks Go looked every bit like a champion that day instead of the humble underdog that he was thought to be. However, despite his triumph at Keeneland that day, Knicks Go has once again found himself labeled as a longshot.
The lofty morning line odds of 30-1 that Knicks Go has been given for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile may appear daunting, but this silver son of Paynter is not in without a chance. Gifted with early speed and a swift turn of foot, Knicks Go has the ability to jump from the gate and establish a comfortable running position early. He has already proven that he can handle running with a large field, and is capable of winning at a grade 1 level. Knicks Go has been training lights out ever since his score in the Breeders' Futurity, with his latest five-furlong workout coming in a sharp final time of :59.20. Of the nineteen horses that worked the same distance that day, Knicks Go's work was the fastest. While it's true that the competition in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile will be the toughest field this brazen youngster has ever faced, it is not impossible to think that he can pull off an upset once again. Dismiss this colt at your own risk. It's not impossible for lightning to strike twice.
Another interesting runner in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile is Code of Honor. While his morning line odds of 5-1 may not be as intriguing as Knicks Go's, it still offers a decent price for a very talented horse. This Shug McGaughey trainee broke his maiden impressively on his first try, traveling six furlongs in a maiden special weight at Saratoga. In his next start, Code of Honor took on grade 1 competition in the $500,000 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park. With a powerful closing kick, this crimson son of Noble Mission stormed down the stretch with startling acceleration. It was an admirable effort that landed Code of Honor just short of victory, as he finished a close and gallant second to the undefeated colt, Complexity.
Code of Honor has been training very forwardly leading up to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and appears primed and ready to run the race of his life on Friday. I expect this colt to thrive on the added distance of this 1 1/16 mile event, and will be shocked if he doesn't come charging down the stretch with authority on race day.
The first Breeders' Cup race on Saturday will kick off with a live longshot that has morning line odds of 10-1. Golden Mischief is coming into the $1 million Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint off a three-race winning streak. After scoring in the Saylorville Stakes and West Virginia Secretary of State Stakes over the summer, Golden Mischief took on deeper competition in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (Gr.2), on October 6. Golden Mischief put on a gritty display in the stretch to claim victory by a neck, valiantly fending off a stampede of challengers.
Since her latest victory, this bay daughter of Into Mischief has been training very impressively leading up to the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. Her final workout for the challenge came in the form of a four-furlong drill on October 28, which she completed in a blazing final time of :47 flat. It was the fastest work of 113 horses traveling the same distance that day. Don't count this gallant runner out, you may just see her storming past rivals once again when the field turns for home on Saturday.
The final race of Breeders' Cup weekend is the heavily anticipated, $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic (Gr.1). A fierce and competitive field of 14 runners is set for the testing 1 1/4 mile event, with several competitors appearing poised to run a winning race. However, one horse that looks ready to run the race of his life will be exiting the starting gate with odds slightly more interesting than others.
Handed morning line odds of 8-1, Catholic Boy is coming into the Breeders' Cup Classic with a major chance to upset the field. This intrepid son of More Than Ready is entering the illustrious event off of a three-race winning streak, with his two latest victories coming in 1 1/4 mile races, the very distance that he will be traveling on Saturday. This battle-tested colt has proven his speed and heart on more than one occasion, displaying true determination, unparalleled valor, and sublime versatility in each and every race. This hard-knocking colt has soared to victory on turf and dirt alike, achieving glory by open lengths and in heart-pounding stretch duels. This is a horse that is not afraid to look a rival dead in the eye and declare war, and that makes him extremely dangerous to his foes.
As if his class and impressive race record weren't enough, Catholic Boy has been training better than ever leading up to the Breeders' Cup Classic. Described as a "keg of dynamite just waiting to go off" by his trainer, Jonathan Thomas, Catholic Boy has been displaying an abundance of speed and stamina in his workouts. Almost as if the horse can sense the battle that awaits, Catholic Boy appears as ready and as willing as ever to charge into the fray. It would be wise to give this plucky colt another look when betting the Breeders' Cup Classic. He just might have what it takes to lead the way to glory.
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Thank you to Eric Kalet for providing the picture! You can find more of his work here: https://erickalet.zenfolio.com/
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