Catholic Boy romping in the Remsen Stakes, photo credit to Eric Kalet
The grade 3, $250,000 Tampa Bay Derby is this weekend at Tampa Bay Downs. There are Kentucky Derby points on the line in this 1 1/16 mile event. A field of seven has been drawn for the race, and today we are going to take a look at some of the top contenders and some long shots with potential.
Catholic Boy is the favorite for the race, and rightfully so. On paper, this colt towers over the competition in this field and appears very tough to beat. Catholic Boy possesses an enormous amount of ability, as he is a stakes winner on both the turf and the dirt. It doesn’t matter to this horse what surface he has to run on, he just wants to win.
Catholic Boy broke his maiden on the turf in his very first try. He then went immediately into deeper competition by entering the grade 3, With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga. He won with authority that day and then set off to the highly contentious, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, where he ran a solid fourth.
It was obvious that this young son of More Than Ready had loads of talent, so his connections decided to switch things up and try him on the dirt. He was entered in the grade 2, Remsen Stakes where he proved that the surface change would not be an issue. Catholic Boy easily blew away his competition and romped over the wire by nearly five lengths.
I think that Catholic Boy is a serious contender on the road to the Kentucky Derby. His ability to win on both the turf and the dirt suggests that the will to win is strong with this colt. Not to mention, the horse that he defeated in the Remsen, Avery Island, has recently come back to score in the Withers Stakes, validating the fact that Catholic Boy beat some pretty talented horses in his dirt debut. The ease and authority in which Catholic Boy puts away his competition is striking, and I see no reason why Catholic Boy won’t continue his dominance in his journey to the Twins Spires.
Another young colt who looks promising in this spot is the undefeated, Vino Rosso. This nimble chestnut has done everything right so far in his career, having been a perfect two for two so far. He broke his maiden going seven furlongs at Aqueduct, and then stretched out around two turns in his latest start. Vino Rosso traveled one mile and forty yards in an allowance race at Tampa Bay Downs. After stalking the early pace, he drew away comfortably at the end to pick up his second win.
We will find out on Saturday if Vino Rosso is the real deal or not. With two wins in two starts, there is nothing to fault him with. However, this will be the toughest field he has ever faced, and going head to head with a colt like Catholic Boy will be no easy task. Vino Rosso does have a win over the somewhat quirky track on Tampa Bay in his favor, so the fact that he has experience on this surface only helps. It will be interesting to see what this young colt is made of on Saturday. He may not be good enough to pass Catholic Boy, but I do think he has the potential to hit the board. Vino Rosso will be right there in the end, making some noise.
A horse that I really like in this race is 8-1 shot, Flameaway. This strapping son of Scat Daddy has done it all. He has won on a synthetic surface, the dirt, and the turf. It takes a seriously talented horse to pull that off, and this young horse did it like it was no big deal.
The fact that Flameaway has shown the ability to overcome adversity by running on any kind of track is a major advantage. So far, he has shown his proficiency by winning sprint races as short as 4 ½ furlongs, and two turn races as long as 1 1/16 miles. Flameaway has emerged with four victories in six starts, with the Skidmore Stakes, the Dixiana Bourbon Stakes, and the Kitten’s Joy Stakes to his name. This colt has shown repeatedly that he has a very competitive drive, and is not afraid to get into a dogfight in the stretch. I think that he is going to show up in the Sam F. Davis in a big way on Saturday. Win, show, or place, you will hear from this horse on race day.
A colt that I like in the exotics of this race is Vouch. He has only raced twice so far, so there isn’t a lot that is known about this dark, young horse. However, he has shown signs of potential in both of his starts. He broke his maiden in style at Laurel Park on his first try, and then boldly set off into stakes action after that. He entered the grade 2, Remsen Stakes and ran a very game third behind Catholic Boy and Avery Island. It was clear that Vouch was not catching either of those colts in the Remsen, but to run third behind such talented horses in only your second race ever is not something to hang your head over. The colt showed up and he ran a good race, proving that he has the class and the potential to move forward.
Vouch is not my first pick to win but I do think that he has a serious chance to run well and hit the board. With that being said, there doesn’t appear to be a lot of pace in the Sam F. Davis, so if Vouch is left alone on the lead, he could be dangerous. If he can use his natural speed to his advantage, he just might be able to sneak away with a win, and with odds of 8-1, he should not be overlooked completely.
Catholic Boy, Flameaway, Vino Rosso, and Vouch are the top four horses in the Sam F. Davis, in my opinion. However, if you want to take a chance on a sneaky long shot on Saturday, look no farther than the horse in post #1, Navy Armed Guard.
Navy Armed Guard has never won a race, and has never even competed against stakes competition. However, he has held his own against some well-bred, promising, young horses. In five starts, this bay gelding has only finished off the board once. The rest of his efforts have been very game seconds and thirds. He has the desire to run and the grit to fight, and that is exactly what you want in a racehorse.
Navy Armed Guard showed a lot of improvement in his last start, when he traveled one mile and forty yards at Tampa Bay Downs. He went very wide into the stretch, but dug in gamely to shoot by his rivals. One by one he knocked off his foes, thundering over the ground like a freight train. He soared up to the front with fierce determination in his stride, but he was too late. He had to settle for second best by only a neck. His strong effort and breathtakingly close finish makes you wonder if he could have pulled off a victory that day, had he not lost so much ground going into the stretch.
Navy Armed Guard has experience over the strip of Tampa Bay Downs and has improved dramatically in his last start. It would be a major feat for this colt to break his maiden against such a talented and experienced field, but if you want to take a risk on Saturday, why not take one on a horse with 15-1 odds?
Thank you to Eric Kalet for the awesome picture of Catholic Boy! You can find more of his photography at http://erickalet.zenfolio.com/
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