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Early Derby Thoughts:Part Three

Chelsea Lowman

by Chelsea Lowman

Believe In Royalty, photo by Dottie Miller

Believe in Royalty, photo credit to Dottie Miller

In previous articles where I analyzed early prospects for the Kentucky Derby, I profiled Biblical, Good Magic, Bolt d'Oro, Engage, Enticed, Mendelssohn, and Freedom Factor. Since then, Enticed captured the Kentucky Jockey Club in dramatic fashion when he out-gutted Tiz Mischief to win by a nose. His bold display of courage and class has moved him up even higher on my list, which says a lot considering the fact that I have liked this tenacious colt ever since he was a yearling. However, we have a long way to go until the first Saturday in May, and there are quite a few colts that are showing just as much early promise. Today we are going to take a look at Believe in Royalty, New York Central, and Catholic Boy.

Just like Enticed, Freedom Factor, Engage, and Biblical, Believe in Royalty is a colt that I've had my eye on for a long time. When you look at the bloodlines of this Larry Jones trainee, you will notice right away that his name is very fitting. Believe in Royalty is by Tapit, the leading sire in America in 2014, 2015, and 2016. And the class doesn't stop there. The dam of this handsome gray is Kentucky Oaks victress, Believe You Can. Believe in Royalty was bred to do big things, and so far he is off to a strong start.

Believe in Royalty made his debut at Delaware Park where he endured a wide trip around the track. Despite the less than ideal conditions, the determined youngster pulled it together to finish a game third. From there he went to Laurel Park where he would make himself known.

Rain left the track of Laurel Park a mess before the one-mile race, but Believe in Royalty was not dismayed. In fact, the intrepid beast was more than ready to take the race to his competition, and after the opening quarter-mile he bulldozed his way to the front. He bounded up to Broad Surprise, who valiantly accepted the challenge, and the pair soon turned it into a match race. Opening up on the rest of the field, the determined pair dueled around the track, locked in battle with every stride. When they zoomed into the stretch, the fight was still on. It was going to come down to whoever had the most guts. And as the pair neared the wire, Believe in Royalty found something more. Digging in, the determined gray switched gears and rocketed for the wire. Broad Surprise could not go on with him and was soon left behind. Believe in Royalty thundered home by 2 1/4 lengths.

Believe in Royalty proved fearless once again in his second start. He exploded out of the Laurel starting gates in a frenzy and stormed right up to the front. If Believe in Royalty was intimidated by the competition, he didn't show it. In fact, he didn't appear to have a care in the world as he brazenly led his foes on a merry chase around the track. With unyielding speed he separated himself from the other horses, driven by an obvious desire to be the best. The rest of the field was at the mercy of the runaway gray.

Believe in Royalty romped into the stretch with a seven-length lead. With no one around to threaten him, he cruised to the wire in a hand ride, clearly loving every moment of his domination. The favorite, Rivington, gave it all he could as he chased after Believe in Royalty, but in the end could only make a small dent in his margin of victory. Believe in Royalty waltzed home by nearly four lengths and made each and every stride look easy.

So far, Believe in Royalty has shown that he can win on any kind of track. Put him on a fast track and he'll run away with a win. Put him on a wet track and that's not a problem either. He will show up and win. This daring youngster has proved both swift and courageous, unwilling to back away from a dogfight. It is far too early in his career to tell exactly what kind of athlete this colt will become, but so far he has shown a clear competitive drive and a dauntless attitude to go with it. The stouthearted colt is currently training for an anticipated start in the Remington Springboard Mile. I think that Believe in Royalty will more than hold his own when he takes on stakes company for the first time. We still have a long way to go until the Kentucky Derby, but I am hoping that this colt will make it into the gate for the illustrious race. Wouldn't it be something to see him storm home under the Twin Spires, just like his mother did in the Oaks?

The next horse on my list of potential Derby horses is New York Central. This is yet another colt that I have been watching for a while. With only two races to his name, you can't exactly herald him as a slam dunk to be a Derby contender, but there is something about him that screams potential.

New York Central didn't look like anything special when he ran third in his debut at Churchill Downs. However, he would go on to raise some eyebrows in his second start. The flashy, gray son of Tapit tracked the pace of the six furlong journey under the Twin Spires, patiently waiting for his moment to strike. When the field turned for home, New York Central unleashed a mighty rally that would leave his foes in shock. With a powerful burst of speed, the speedy colt roared forward, easily overtaking Grateful Cause. In the blink of an eye, New York Central put his foes away and never looked back. Unraveling his hulking stride, New York Central just kept on going, running farther and farther away from his nearest competitor. In a breathtaking display, the spirited young horse marched over the wire by 7 1/4 lengths, stopping the clock in an impressive time of 1:09.66.

New York Central has a lot of upside for a horse who is only a maiden winner. Gifted with raw speed and a tactical racing style, New York Central looks like a horse that is in control and knows what he's doing. Having the right mindset is a major advantage, especially for a horse as young as he. The fervent way in which he took over in the stretch speaks volumes about his potential, and the romping way that he finished suggests that he still had a lot of power left in the tank. He clearly enjoyed what he was doing, and that is exactly what you want to see. His sharp final time for six furlongs was extremely impressive, and I will be shocked if he does not come back to win again in his next start, whatever it may be. I cannot wait to see what else this horse is made of.

The last horse I want to discuss is already very accomplished compared to the other two. That horse is Catholic Boy. This bay son of More Than Ready has been brilliant from the start, but interestingly enough, dreams of the Derby didn't always lay on the shoulders of this gifted runner.

Catholic Boy began his career on the turf, a surface that he proved to be right at home on. He broke his maiden on his first asking and then dove right into stakes company. Again he won, scoring in the With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga. With a perfect record, Catholic Boy set off to Del Mar to knock heads with the best of the best in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.

In a race loaded with talented runners, Catholic Boy met his first defeat. However, he still put forth a solid effort, showing that courage and determination were strong within him. His steadfast efforts didn't go unnoticed by trainer Jonathan Thomas, who knew full well that he had a very special horse on his hands.

Anyone with a good two year old understandably wants to try to make it to the Kentucky Derby. Catholic Boy had talent, there was no doubt about that. But could that talent translate to the dirt? If there would be any hope for the gallant youngster to make it to the Derby, he was going to have to try out a new surface. So, he was entered in the Remsen Stakes. A salty field of quality runners assembled for the race. It would not be an easy spot to try out a new surface, but just like in every race before, Catholic Boy tackled the challenge with gusto.

Catholic Boy raced mid-pack for the majority of the race, impassively waiting for his moment to pounce. When Manuel Franco finally gave the command to strike, Catholic Boy took off without hesitation. He charged into the stretch like he owned it and from there he made short work of his competition. The other horses didn't stand a chance as Catholic Boy shot home by almost five crushing lengths. He looked so impressive winning that you would have never thought that it was his first race ever on the dirt. It became clear that Catholic Boy was a horse to be taken seriously. He is consistent, determined, agile, and can quite obviously run on anything you ask him to. The horse knows his job and loves to win.

We have many months and many miles to go before the Kentucky Derby. It will be thrilling to follow these horses on their journey to the Twin Spires. In the months to come the pretenders will be found out, and the true contenders will rise to the top. But with all the promise that these young horses are showing now, it's hard not to start dreaming.

Chelsea Lowman

Thank you to Dottie Miller for providing the picture of Believe in Royalty!

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at https://twitter.com/Down2TheWire_

Here is a link to Part One of my Derby picks https://chelsealowman66.wixsite.com/mysite/single-post/2017/11/19/Early-Derby-Thoughts

And here is a link to Part Two https://chelsealowman66.wixsite.com/mysite/single-post/2017/11/24/Early-Derby-PicksPart-Two

And here is a previous article I have written on Believe in Royalty https://chelsealowman66.wixsite.com/mysite/single-post/2017/11/23/Believe-in-Royalty-is-One-to-Watch

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