It is never too early to start thinking about the Kentucky Derby. The 2018 run for the roses is still a while away and a lot can change from now until May, but it is always the race that comes to mind when there is a good two year old running. Anything can happen with these young horses as they find their stride. Take Always Dreaming for example. He won the Kentucky Derby, but at this time last year he hadn’t even broken his maiden. That’s what’s thrilling about this sport. The next big thing can come when you’re least expecting it. At this point no horse looks like a sure thing, but there are a few standouts that look like they have what it takes to make it to the iconic race on the first Saturday in May.
The first horse that comes to mind is Biblical. This strapping son of Tapit has been on my radar for a while. I first came across him when he was in the Fasig-Tipton yearling sale at Saratoga last summer. I loved his breeding and wrote him down as one to watch for the future. You can’t go wrong with Tapit as a sire, and when I saw who the dam was, I knew there was even more potential to go along with the mighty bloodlines of Tapit. The dam is Storm Dixie, who is the mare that gave us the immensely talented, Princess of Sylmar.
Biblical was bought by China Horse Club International and sent to Todd Pletcher to be trained. The regal grey made his first start this past September at Saratoga. He finished a lackluster sixth. Nothing looked too promising about this stately bred animal, but it was only his first race, so I reserved judgment. Biblical raced again at the end of September, this time at Belmont Park. He showed improvement from his first race and ran a solid third. The young horse was starting to figure things out.
In his third start, he entered a 1 1/8 Allowance race at Aqueduct. Biblical put it all together and at last made himself known. He raced mid-pack before swinging up around the turn for home to confront the leaders. Roaming Union put up a fight when Biblical came bounding up to threaten his lead. The pair hooked up, putting on an impressive display of grit and determination. Biblical wasn’t giving an inch to his tenacious foe. He was in the zone, and was not about to stop now. He proved too much for Roaming Union, who was the first to cave under the pressure. Digging in, Biblical surged forward and began to pull away. His will to win never faltered as he romped toward the finish line, fending off a late challenge from Marconi, who simply couldn’t catch up to the speedy Biblical.
Any time I see a young horse put up a fight, I pay attention. The gutty performance Biblical put on in the stretch was ultra-impressive. Not only did he dauntlessly dive right into a duel with Roaming Union, but he also had the stamina to pull away, and the tenacity to keep the fast closing Marconi at bay. I have had high hopes for this colt for a while, so it was very exciting to see him win the way he did. Based on his breeding and the convincing way he won at the 1 1/8 distance, I believe that he will have no problem as the races get longer. Not to mention, he is trained and ridden by the same connections who teamed up to win the Kentucky Derby with Always Dreaming, so it’s safe to say that this colt is in very capable hands. I will definitely continue to follow this horse on his journey to the Twin Spires.
Another promising young colt with Derby dreams in Good Magic. How can I not like him after the way he broke out to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile? The handsome chestnut colt is by Curlin. With Curlin as a sire, I doubt that Good Magic will have any distance limitations moving forward. In fact, his breeding suggests that the 1 ¼ distance of the Kentucky Derby will be right up his ally.
Good Magic is trained by the highly accomplished Chad Brown, and is owned by Stonestreet Stables and e Five Racing Thoroughbreds. He ran second in his first race at Saratoga, and then followed that up with a second in the Champagne Stakes. Running second in your first two races suggests that the talent is there, but Good Magic came into the Breeders’ Cup under the radar. After all, most of the horses in the field were already more accomplished, either as stakes winners or in their number of victories. But the young maiden was not dismayed. He loaded into the starting gate, oblivious to the fact that the odds were against him. The horse knew what he could do.
Good Magic tracked the pacesetters in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and when the final bend loomed ahead, it became clear that this maiden was going to make some noise. Good Magic boldly charged after Solomini and with an overwhelming burst of speed, he took off. Leaving Solomini in his wake, Good Magic soared down the stretch, drawing clear of the competition. Jockey Jose Ortiz was literally screaming with joy as his mighty steed thundered over the wire, stunning their competition with their sublime victory. At odds of 11-1, Good Magic made history as the first horse to ever break his maiden in a Breeders’ Cup race. He may not have won previous to the Breeders’ Cup, but there was no doubt about this win. Good Magic was much the best. There is a lot of upside to this Breeders’ Cup champion, and I can’t wait to see what else he can do.
I can’t leave Bolt d’Oro out of this Kentucky Derby discussion. The nimble bay son of Medaglia d’Oro has shown a world of talent in every race he has ever been in so far. After an impressive maiden win at Del Mar, he went on to score in the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner Stakes, both in dominating fashion. This Mick Ruis trainee was untouchable, showing no mercy to his rivals. The desire for victory burned strong in this colt, and as a result, he entered the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a heavy favorite.
A lot of experts expected Bolt d’Oro to continue his tour de force in the Breeders’ Cup and march to victory as an undefeated champion. However, it was not to be. Bolt d’Oro broke from the gates in the Breeders’ Cup and entered a race full of trouble. The colt was knocked out of his game, encountering a challenging and rough trip in a crowded field of determined runners. He had a lot of ground to make up by the time he reached the stretch, and not a lot of time to do it. With Good Magic pulling away with a strong lead, it became clear that Bolt d’Oro had no chance to get there in time. But he tried anyway. The steadfast colt determinedly made up ground, closing as fast as he could until the wire came. He ended up third, which was impressive considering the adversity he had to overcome. Plus, when the going got tough, he still kept going. Bolt d’Oro could have given up in the stretch. It was clear he wouldn’t win anyway. But he didn’t give up. He kept running and he finished the race. That is what you want to see in a thoroughbred. The horse has heart, and sometimes that’s all you need in this sport. Would he have caught Good Magic had he gotten a better trip? It’s tough to say. Good Magic looked like an unstoppable beast, and was a very deserving winner. But regardless of who really was the best that day, Ruis still held his head high and walked away happy with his colt. Ruis believes that he still has the best horse, but only time will tell if that’s true.
The last colt I want to discuss is Engage. Like Biblical, Engage is also a horse that I have had my eye on from the start. By Into Mischief and out of the Speightstown mare, Nefertiti, his breeding suggests that he will be best as a one turn horse. The 1 ¼ distance of the Kentucky Derby may not be ideal for a horse with such a speed laden pedigree, but Engage is far too talented to count him out quite yet.
Engage showed a lot of determination and courage in his maiden race at Saratoga. He got into a gritty dogfight with National Flag, brazenly battling him down the length of the stretch before giving way to finish second. It was a very solid effort from a horse that clearly wasn’t afraid of anyone. I knew then that he would win in his next start.
With his devastating speed, Engage soundly defeated his competition in his second start at Saratoga. He won with ease, showing the same competitive spirit that he had shown in his first race. This colt was a serious athlete, and trainer Chad Brown knew it because he entered him in a stakes race next.
Engage stepped things up in the Futurity Stakes at Belmont Park. Once again the young colt took on his latest challenge with gusto, fully prepared to devastate his peers. When the field turned for home, Engage exploded down the stretch, easily overtaking his competition as he sprinted for home. None of the other horses stood a chance against his raw speed. The race was over the instant Engage struck the front, taking over with a breathtaking swiftness that no one saw coming. In the blink of an eye, he was all alone. The intrepid beast roared home, clear of his competition.
While I do think that Engage will be best in shorter races, using his blazing speed to overwhelm his rivals, I also believe that he has a potential to do some damage in two turn races as well. The horse has too much talent to ignore. And just because the pedigree suggests one thing doesn’t always mean it’s true. He may outrun his pedigree, and he may not. Only time will tell. One thing is for sure, and that is the fact that this colt has class and class will carry him far. Will it carry him 1 ¼? I wouldn’t be surprised if it can. That’s how promising this colt looks. His connections understandably want to gradually stretch him out to see how far he can go, and I 100% agree with their decision. After all, you never know what your horse is fully capable of unless you let him run. I think this horse has potential to do some big things, whether it be in the Triple Crown races or as a top sprinter. No matter which way this colt goes he is definitely one to watch.
Part two of my early Derby picks will be coming soon!
Here is a link to a previous article of mine where Engage was discussed, along with other young horses that I expect to have bright futures. https://chelsealowman66.wixsite.com/mysite/single-post/2017/10/29/Future-Stars-of-Horse-Racing
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