The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile are two of the toughest races to handicap. The horses are young and unpredictable. Most have only started a couple of times and are still trying to find their best stride. As tricky as it can be to predict how some of them will run, it is also a lot of fun. These young horses have their whole futures ahead of them, and you never know which one will emerge as the next star of the sport.
For the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ race there are a few horses in particular that I think will show up big on race day. They are Moonshine Memories, the favorite, Heavenly Love, and a 20-1 long shot, Maya Malibu. I will start with Moonshine Memories, since she is the most accomplished of the three.
Moonshine Memories has done everything that’s been asked of her so far. Three races, three wins. A flawless record for a very promising young filly. In her short career, this filly has already captured two Grade 1s when she scored in both the Del Mar Debutante and Chandelier Stakes. I don’t like to stick with the chalk when betting on a race, but I can’t fault this filly. She is already proven at Del Mar, where the Breeders’ Cup races will be contested, and so far no one has been able to catch her. She has been training nicely for her upcoming race and there is no reason for me to think that she won’t run her race on Saturday.
The next horse that I like a lot is Heavenly Love. This gifted filly broke her maiden on her second try before going on to claim a stakes race. She won the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes in ultra-impressive fashion. After stalking the pace for the majority of the race she took command and began blazing away. The rest of the runners were left in the wake of what very well may be a future champion. Heavenly Love could not have looked any more superior in her stakes debut. In fact, I was slightly more impressed with her win than I was with Moonshine Memories’ win in the Chandelier Stakes, and that’s saying something because Moonshine Memories is one imposing filly. I really like the chances of both of these fillies coming into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’, but I have to give a slight edge to Heavenly Love.
Last we have Maya Malibu, who is in my opinion, a very live long shot. I really like her chances, and I think she is a much better horse than her odds suggest. This filly has never been off the board in her three lifetime starts and has looked strong in each effort. I really liked the way she finished in the Spinaway Stakes a couple of months ago. She closed willingly and made up a lot of ground in the stretch, determinedly climbing her way to the top. It appeared as if she was going to win for a moment, but in the end had to settle for a close second. A month later in the Frizette Stakes she showed up once again. This time she was third, but she was still closing readily in the end.
Based on Maya Malibu’s running style, I think we may see the best from her on Saturday. I think she will relish racing around two turns for the first time since it will give her more time to make her closing move. I also think she will get a lot of pace to close into in this race. There are some very fast horses in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ and if things get too quick up front, Maya Malibu will use it to her advantage. I expect her to come charging at the end, sneaking up from behind to pick off her tired competition. The size and depth of the field is causing her to get overlooked at 20-1, but that’s fine with me because I love the price I can get on her.
Box up Maya Malibu with Moonshine Memories and Heavenly Love, and if you want a fourth horse to play for a superfecta, throw in Caledonia Road. She looked magnificent when she ate up the ground to grab second in the Frizette Stakes. She is another one who I think will benefit from the anticipated hot pace of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’. She is light on experience but has shown potential. Plus, the fact that she will be piloted by the Breeders’ Cup’s winningest jockey, Mike Smith, makes her look even more interesting.
I would be shocked if the two favorites in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile don’t run well on Saturday. I think that Bolt d’Oro and Free Drop Billy are the class of the race. Bolt d’Oro is perfect in his career, undefeated in all three of his races. He is already a two-time Grade 1 winner, having taken down the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner Stakes. He runs with astonishing ease, devastating his peers and captivating the public with each win. He has been so impressive that he is already the early favorite for the 2018 Kentucky Derby. There’s no way I can leave this colt off my ticket.
Free Drop Billy has always been a promising horse, but his win in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity proved just how powerful he can be around two turns. He annihilated his competition without even having to try, cruising to a four-length victory that earned him an automatic berth into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. This is a race that Free Drop Billy definitely belongs in. I think he will thrive as the races get longer. There is no doubt that Free Drop Billy is a horse that has been gifted with unyielding stamina and that makes his future look very bright. I think that this strapping son of Union Rags will have something to say at the end of this race.
I believe that the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is going to come down to Bolt d’Oro and Free Drop Billy. But underneath them, I like Firenze Fire to hit the board. He is a better horse than he gets credit for. In four career starts, he won three races, including the Sanford Stakes and Grade 1 Champagne Stakes. This consistent horse always runs his heart out. You can’t ask for a more honest runner than Firenze Fire. This is a colt that you can depend on to run his race and I believe he will be right there in the thick of it when the field turns for home. He has an intense closing kick that catapults him to the top with breakneck speed and I know he will be ready to fire come race day. This is a quality animal, and his competition will be hearing from him on race day.
I am going to end this segment with a long shot pick. If you don’t want to play the two favorites or Firenze Fire in this race, or if you just want a big price to use in the exotics, consider using Golden Dragon. His morning line odds are 30-1 and will likely climb even higher by post time. This talented youngster is on a two race winning streak, but interestingly enough, this robust colt has never raced on the dirt before. It is a daring move to test him out on a new surface in a race of this prestige, but I have to agree that his connections are making the right call. The horse has been training insanely well on the dirt. He moves beautifully over it, bounding around the track with total gusto. The way he rolls over the ground with his never-ending stride suggests that the dirt may actually be his preferred surface. He has looked so strong and so fit in the mornings that I couldn’t help but notice this sneaky long shot. It will be interesting to see what he can do in his dirt debut this weekend.