Post positions have been drawn and the fields are set. The highly anticipated Breeders’ Cup Classic is almost upon us. It will be a major showdown between some of the greatest horses that this sport has to offer, and there are a few contenders in this race that stand out more than others to me. Those horses are Gun Runner, Arrogate, and Collected.
I will start with Gun Runner because he is the horse that I expect to win it. Sure, I might be a little bit biased. I have literally been a fan of this horse since he was an unnamed baby. When I saw his pedigree I thought it looked like he had the breeding to be a runner, and now here we are. But aside from my biased love for Gun Runner, I truly believe that he has what it takes to win the Classic. This ultra-consistent, gritty horse has more heart than any horse could hope to have. No matter what, Gun Runner is a horse that shows up and runs his race. He does not throw in the towel and cry when things get hard. He keeps on running. I think that is what I admire most about him. Last year he ran in some of the biggest races and got beat despite running his heart out, and it never broke him. It only taught him how to get better. He would come into his next race and try again. Sometimes he would win. Sometimes he didn’t. But he always would come close, trying harder and harder. He was always right there in the end. The colt has guts, and that is what has gotten him to where he is now. This stouthearted horse was good as a three year old, but now at the age of four, he has turned into a monster on the track, winning four of his five starts this year, including his last three starts in a row, the Stephen Foster Handicap, The Whitney Stakes, and the Woodward Stakes, all Grade 1s and all in scintillating time. Gun Runner went from being a horse to play in the exotics to a horse that is unstoppable. I believe that this talent has always been inside of Gun Runner, and now that he has discovered how to use it, there is no going back.
Gun Runner has looked sensational as he prepares for the Breeders’ Cup. Some people are questioning his ability to go a mile and a quarter, but my faith in his ability cannot be shaken. All of his wins this year have come by daylight, suggesting that he has more than enough energy to keep running. Not to mention, Gun Runner has made all of his wins this year look so easy that it’s almost scary to think that we still haven’t seen his best. I know Arrogate has beaten Gun Runner in the past, but I strongly believe that Gun Runner has gotten better since then. He has improved with every race this year and I don’t expect that to stop now. Gun Runner could not be doing any better right now and I expect to see this gallant horse run the race of his life on Saturday.
Next we have Arrogate, the highly regarded, highly accomplished horse who exudes greatness everywhere he goes. Arrogate made himself known when he stunned the competition in the 2016 Travers Stakes, running away by 13 ½ lengths in a blistering final time of 1:59.36, creating a new track record. He then went on to catch 2014 Kentucky Derby winner, California Chrome, in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The heavyweight champion then started off this season the way he ended it, by winning. Arrogate demolished his competition in the inaugural Pegasus World Cup, running with so much might and power that no one stood a chance against him. He appeared to be invincible, shutting down all who tried to run with him. His flawless form gave his connections the confidence to travel all the way to Dubai for the Dubai World Cup. Arrogate went in as the favorite, expected to overwhelm his competition as he had done time and time again. But when the starting gates flew open, he missed the break, giving his rivals a major head start. It looked hopeless for Arrogate as he trailed the highly talented field. But Arrogate was not to be denied. He shook it off and did what he does best. Like the champion he is, Arrogate plowed through the field and blew to the front, thundering home with ease despite the fact that it looked over from the start. It was such a riveting, awe-inspiring performance that his trainer Bob Baffert called him the “greatest horse since Secretariat”.
However, as formidable of an athlete that Arrogate is, he’s no Secretariat. After returning from Dubai he ran a very dull race in the San Diego Handicap, finishing a distant fourth. It was a shocking sight to see Arrogate look so flatfooted when he is normally an unconquerable force. A month later, he lost again. His stablemate, Collected, defeated him in the Pacific Classic. To be fair, Arrogate ran a much better race than he did in the San Diego. This time he finished a close second, steadily making up ground every step of the way. And to his credit, Collected is a very nice horse in his own right. But it was still strange to see Arrogate lose. He was so incredibly inviolable in the past that people expected him to never lose anything. Some speculate that the trip to Dubai may have taken something out of him, and others think that he just has lost a step. Another theory is that Arrogate simply doesn’t like Del Mar’s track. But if you ask me, that’s not a good excuse. Great horses are supposed to overcome their obstacles and win, even if it’s hard. And after seeing Arrogate overcome the trouble he had in Dubai, it doesn’t seem likely that he would lose just because he doesn’t like a certain racetrack.
I honestly don’t know exactly what to expect from Arrogate, but deep down I do think he’s still great, and I do think he still has some big efforts left in him. Horses lose sometimes. That’s just the way it is. However, even if the old champion is still in him, he will have to run a huge race on Saturday because Gun Runner has gotten better since their last meeting, and Collected, who beat him before, is a freak on the Del Mar strip. The Classic will not be an easy race for anyone, but if you’re an Arrogate fan you will be happy to know that he has been training lights out for what will be his final race. All of his connections are very happy with how he’s coming into the Classic and it looks like he is sitting on another big one. If Arrogate can pull this off he will become only the second horse ever to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic twice.
The third Classic contender I expect to run well is Collected. As mentioned above, he beat Arrogate on the square in the Pacific Classic, which happened to be his fourth win in a row this year. Overall, Collected has won eight of his eleven starts and is a far better horse than some people give him credit for. Collected is a horse that can carry his speed, and that makes him dangerous. Not to mention, he loves Del Mar and it just so happens that the Breeders’ Cup will be held there this year. Bob Baffert said that out of all of his Breeders’ Cup horses he is the most confident in Collected’s ability to handle the Del Mar track that he is already proven on. Collected has looked utterly breathtaking while training for the Classic and hasn’t missed a beat. He is the picture of health and strength. The horse is clearly loaded and ready to give it his all. While I expect Gun Runner to win the Classic, I wouldn’t be surprised if Collected could claim second.
A horse that has never run on the dirt before is going to be my honorable mention for the Classic. That horse is the Aidan O’Brien trainee, Churchill. I can’t think of a harder race to make your dirt debut in than the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but I have a lot of respect for Aidan O’Brien, so the fact that he’s making this bold move automatically makes me interested in this horse. Churchill is already proven on the turf, winning seven of his twelve races, so to move him to the dirt when there is so much on the line screams confidence to me. To be honest, it almost made more sense to me to choose West Coast as my honorable mention. I think that horse has a lot of promise and we already know that he can run on the dirt and win at a classic distance. But the daring move of entering Churchill in this race was too intriguing to ignore. I am not going to be betting Churchill to win but I do think he’ll make some noise. It will be very interesting to see what this European horse can do. And who knows? If there’s going to be an upset in the Classic, he may just be the one to do it.